The emergence of a new wintertime Arctic energy balance regime

Abstract The modern Arctic climate during wintertime is characterized by sea-ice cover, a strong surface temperature inversion, and the absence of convection. Correspondingly, energy balance in atmosphere today dominated atmospheric radiative cooling advective heating, so-called Radiative Advective Equilibrium (RAE). Climate change involves melt, vanishing emergence convective precipitation. Here we show new regime cooling, Convective (RCAE). A time-dependent decomposition shows transition associated with enhanced followed decreased heating. response consists robust clear-sky greenhouse effect transient cloud contribution that varies across models. Mechanism-denial experiments an aquaplanet without interactive sea ice highlight important role melt both heating responses. results temporally evolving mechanisms, suggesting emergent constraint based on historical data or trends may not constrain long-term response.